January 15th — Reality Check: Winter’s Back

Good evening, yinz.

So… remember last week when Pittsburgh was out here cosplaying as spring?

Yeah. About that.

It’s cold again. It’s snowing. And just like that, we’re back in our regularly scheduled programming — grey skies, slippery sidewalks, and everyone quietly reconsidering why they live somewhere that hurts their face.

Let me be very clear:
This is the real season.
Last week was the false sense of reality.
This week is Mother Nature reminding us who’s in charge.

Market Watch (quick look at this past week)

(aka: the market is awake… but still stretching)

If you’re still reading this — first of all, respect.
Second — yes, people are still buying and selling. January just moves slower and a little stranger.

Here’s the last 7 days, with week-over-week movement 👇

🏷 Listings & Activity (WoW)

• New Listings: 578 ⬆️ (more sellers testing the waters)

• Sold: 417 ⬆️ (buyers are still active)

• Under Contract: 211 ⬆️

• Contingent: 423 ⬆️

• Back on Market: 87 ⬇️ (fewer deals falling apart)

🔻 Pricing Signals (WoW)

• Price Decreases: 425 ⬇️ (still high, but trending the right way)

• Price Increases: 16 ⬇️ (reality > optimism)

What this tells me:
Sellers are adjusting faster, which usually helps deals come together instead of sitting.

❌ Listings That Didn’t Stick (WoW)

• Expired: 169 ⬇️

• Withdrawn: 101 ⬇️

Still elevated, but trending down — classic January behavior.

🧠 My quick take

This looks like a market that’s waking up, not sprinting.

More listings, more contracts, fewer relists — that’s usually what we see right before activity ramps up heading into late winter / early spring.

🏁 2025 in Review (and What It Means for 2026)

Last week I promised a true “2025 in Review,” so here it is — using MLS-backed numbers (and comparing 2025 directly to 2024).

2025 started with a lot of uncertainty. A new administration, mixed economic signals, and rate volatility kept plenty of buyers and sellers in “wait-and-see” mode early on.

But when you look at the year as a whole, the story is actually pretty clear:

The 2025 Market Story (Compared to 2024)

1) Prices rose — but in a healthy way

Home values didn’t crash and they didn’t spike uncontrollably either.
Prices climbed, but at a calmer, more sustainable pace than the frenzy years.

What that tells me: demand stayed real — it just got more selective.

2) Inventory improved — buyers finally had options

Active listings were generally higher throughout 2025 than 2024. More choice means less panic, more comparison, and more negotiation.

What that tells me: 2025 was closer to a “normal” market than we’ve seen in a while.

3) Homes took longer to sell — unless they were priced right

Days on Market increased in 2025. That doesn’t mean demand disappeared — it means the market stopped forgiving overpricing.

The pattern I saw:
✅ Great homes + correct pricing = still moved
❌ Stretch pricing = sat, reduced, or withdrew

[GRAPH: Median Days on Market (2024 vs 2025)]

4) Negotiation returned — but it wasn’t a buyer takeover

Sale-to-list stayed tight overall, but sellers had to work harder for top dollar. Incentives, pricing precision, and presentation mattered.

Translation:
This wasn’t a “buyers’ market”… but it also wasn’t the “name your price” seller market either.

So… What Does This Mean for 2026?

Here’s my take:

If rates keep dipping (or even stabilize lower), we’ll feel it fast.

There are a lot of buyers who paused in 2024/2025 — not because they didn’t want to buy, but because the monthly payment felt punishing.

If rates ease, even a little, I expect:

• more buyers “coming out of the woodwork”

• more showings

• more multiple-offer situations on the best homes

• faster decision-making again

Will it be like the COVID market?

No — and that’s important.

COVID-era conditions were a once-in-a-generation mix of:

• ultra-low rates

• stimulus

• remote work migration

• tiny inventory

That combo probably doesn’t repeat.

But could 2026 be busy?

Yes — absolutely.

My expectation:
A high-activity market, especially in the “move-in ready / well-priced” segment, without the same level of chaos.

What to Watch (Simple “If This, Then That”)

✅ If rates dip:

Buyers re-enter quickly → activity rises → competition picks up

✅ If inventory stays higher:

More balance → fewer bidding wars → more negotiation

✅ If sellers overprice:

More price reductions → longer DOM → buyers wait them out

My Bottom Line

2025 looked like a market returning to fundamentals:
pricing, condition, negotiation, and patience.

If borrowing costs cooperate in 2026, I expect a noticeably more active year — not a repeat of COVID — but definitely a market where buyers move again and the pace picks up.

PNC Bank mandates all employees return back to office

PNC Released a statement this week mandating employees return to the office.

Which… GOOD but also SUCKS (if your one of those people).
If your one of those people who’ve gotten comfortable with the work at home environment, you may be searching for a new job. A lot of people discovered in these last several years that they are not only HAPPIER working from home but ALSO more PRODUCTIVE. What do you think?

If it gets more people out downtown, it’s a good thing for the City of Pittsburgh.

Burgh Football 🏈

Embarrassing loss.. again. 9 years without a playoff win and PITTSBURGHER’S GET THEIR WISH FINALLY. Tomlin STEPS-DOWN.

Things To Do This Weekend

To be honest.. not a whole lot. Google it or go here. It’s a slow time of year and everyone’s just getting their bearings straight still.